Appendix D

D1

Time series plots of transformation and differencing methods used.

1st order difference, log transformation	1st order differencing, squareroot transformation
2nd order difference, power transformation (.25)	2nd order difference
2nd order difference, log transformation	2nd order difference, squareroot transformation

D2

FINAL PARAMETERS:

Number of residuals  52

Standard error       .29878497

Log likelihood       -8.8447329

AIC                  27.689466

SBC                  37.445684

            Analysis of Variance:

              DF  Adj. Sum of Squares    Residual Variance

Residuals     47            4.2632151            .08927246

           Variables in the Model:

                     B         SEB      T-RATIO   APPROX. PROB.

AR1         -.06208454   .13210119    -.4699772       .64054476

AR2         -.01743545   .12578612    -.1386119       .89034908

AR3          .22202828   .13451081    1.6506352       .10548077

AR4          .38982710   .14065592    2.7714944       .00797020

CONSTANT    -.05186482   .08173255    -.6345676       .52878744

FINAL PARAMETERS:

Number of residuals  52

Standard error       .30458734

Log likelihood       -9.7572943

AIC                  29.514589

SBC                  39.270807

            Analysis of Variance:

              DF  Adj. Sum of Squares    Residual Variance

Residuals     47            4.4141527            .09277345

           Variables in the Model:

                     B         SEB      T-RATIO   APPROX. PROB.

MA1         -.04760010   .13855660    -.3435427       .73272236

MA2         -.07827508   .13173714    -.5941763       .55524364

MA3         -.22362246   .13740776   -1.6274368       .11033078

MA4         -.32906967   .14317103   -2.2984376       .02603120

CONSTANT    -.02961972   .06918481    -.4281246       .67051599

D3